Undead Astronauts

David Brooks has an op-ed that describes an elite group of overachievers as “The Empirical Kids.” The origin of this label came from a paper written by one of the kids themselves that uses the descriptor “The Cynical Kids” instead. The writer notes that members of her group are deeply cynical of idealism and want to see empirical results before committing to a course of action. The problem with that is that getting the data to answer these questions can be time consuming and reduces them to a “stick with the evil you know” mentality.

Brooks actually applauds this view as he’s an empiricist, so he changed the moniker. I wonder about the truth of this however. Beyond a few websites, has this view actually taken hold in elite circles and is that a good thing? I can’t claim to be in the in-crowd of any elite group, but I don’t get the feeling that elites have run out of idealism. They certainly have a view to constant self improvement, but if they didn’t view that as leading to a larger goal, why would they try? And how many of these elites actually pay attention to statistics? I’d like to see some data on that. Haha.

The interesting thing is that Brooks believes that the elites are data savvy. Elites will know better how to interpret statistics and will be better able to craft policy from it when the data becomes available. The only other place that I can think of where the elites pay so much attention to statistics is Singapore, which is one of the best governed nations on earth. One can hope.

An admission officer’s uncomfortable explanation for why they don’t get in as often as their test scores would predict suggests it’s not.

Are Ivy League institutions discriminating against Asian Americans by limiting how many are admitted? That’s the subject of a debate published this week in the New York Times. Let’s start with the folks who believe that there’s effectively a race-based quota limiting Asian Americans.

1. More speculation on why Asians don’t vote more Republican from Charles Murray. There’s legitimate speculation from around the web that Asians should be a natural Republican constituency due to their income levels, family oriented values and “leave me alone” attitude towards gov’t. But Asians, like Jews before them, have gone solidly Democratic.
2. Intrade has now been banned for being detrimental to larger society. They were allowing unregulated trading, but when a similar outfit had applied for a permit, they were denied. Why don’t they just go and ban all commodity trading?
3. More on corrupt Ivy League admissions here.
4. Brazilian candid camera show with a prank that could cause heart attacks.

Technically, this hypothetical electoral map should be no surprise. But seeing it is still a bit surprising. Note that this is the map for 2008, but it remained the same this year.

Anyone else find this a little bit concerning? More maps here.

I have a complete lack of enthusiasm for Obama’s win, but a great deal of enthusiasm for the win of big data. Even though many pundits (primarily conservatives) thought they were crazy, the number crunchers pretty much nailed their predictions of a clear Obama win. Grats to Sam Wang, Nate Silver and the rest. Hopefully the Republicans come back to live in the world of reality. I’m rooting for them. Anyways, the data based win confirms the viability of the Moneyball (or Politiball if you prefer) approach to analysis. The pundits are the dinosaur baseball scouts that make gut based calls, and the nerdy quants are… the nerdy quants. Tellingly, Silver comes from a baseball statistics background. Wang on the other hand is has a neuroscience background. The pundits/scouts (and their guts) didn’t have a chance in either case.

The second interesting thing is the change in the Asian American vote. The exit polls show that Asians went for Obama at 73% this year compared to 62% in 2008. This is a significant shift as Asians are now bigger supporters of Obama than Hispanics. Unfortunately, nobody cares because Asians still only comprised 3% of voters. I don’t understand the underpinning of the further shift left. Yes, Romney made a string of anti-China comments, including saying he’d label China a currency manipulator on day 1. But could that alone really shift the vote more than 10%? Maybe those comments and the party’s anti-immigration stance together really made the Republicans appear too xenophobic. Or maybe Obama really is the first Asian American president.

I’ve had a long standing opinion that the estate tax (or death tax if you prefer) has real value. It allows a rich person to do whatever he wants with his wealth while he’s alive, but it also prevents his descendants from using his accumulated wealth to stay an elite when they did little to nothing to earn it. As of 2011, up to $5M can be bequeathed from an individual without incurring this tax. $5M is enough that a moderately capable descendant should be able to continue life in a comfortable fashion. The term “a man of leisure” describes exactly the type of social standing I wish to eliminate; a person so wealthy from inheritance that they have no need to get a job or be burdened by any responsibilities. Munny happens to disagree with this view, as he believes an individual should be able to do what they want with their money even after death.

A new study by Gregory Clark (A Farewell to Alms) has shown that as much as 60% of your relative economic and social standing may be determined by lineage. It doesn’t matter whether you live in the US, Japan or Sweden. Contrary to the common view that wealth can appear and disappear within 3-4 generations, his research has shown that it might take near millenia for a complete cycle from commoner to wealthy elite and back. It wasn’t affected by the Industrial Revolution, the communist revolution in China, nor the various modern social policies put in place in recent decades around the world. The only apparent outlier to the trend is India, where social mobility is even lower than the rest of the world, presumably due to the legacy of the caste system.

The study, if it turns out to be true, only reinforces my belief that the estate tax is one of the best ways to tax the populace. Since the relative position of the descendants isn’t threatened regardless of the social policy of the day, it almost argues for an even more aggressive pro-social mobility policy to be enacted. I won’t go so far as to say the $5M threshold should be lowered, but I do believe it should at least be left in place. Mitt Romney wants to abolish the estate tax. I have been undecided on who to vote for up until this point, but Clark’s report has made up my mind for me.

Pew Research has a wide ranging report on the status of Asians in the US. One wonders if the author was thinking about China’s “rise” when he titled this report.

It covers some familiar ground about education and income (Asians are group with highest in both). It also reaffirms some long held views that I haven’t seen numbers on, such as importance of family.

More than half (54%) say that having a successful marriage is one of the most important things in life; just 34% of all American adults agree. Two-thirds of Asian-American adults (67%) say that being a good parent is one of the most important things in life; just 50% of all adults agree.

They are more likely than all American adults to be married (59% vs. 51%); their newborns are less likely than all U.S. newborns to have an unmarried mother (16% vs. 41%); and their children are more likely than all U.S. children to be raised in a household with two married parents (80% vs. 63%).

The tiger mom perception is confirmed to no one’s surprise.

Nearly four-in-ten (39%) say that Asian-American parents from their country of origin subgroup put too much pressure on their children to do well in school. Just 9% say the same about all American parents. On the flip-side of the same coin, about six-in-ten Asian Americans say American parents put too little pressure on their children to succeed in school, while just 9% say the same about Asian-American parents.

Religiosity and political views in this survey generally matches the information posted yesterday. There’s a ton more information in the full report, but it’s so large I haven’t finished reading it. Here are some of the key numbers.

The full report is 8 pages. Quite comprehensive and really too much to cover in a blog post. As I read more of it, I’ll post anything that sticks out.